{"punk":9862,"name":"CryptoPunk #9862","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9862","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9862.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Mustache","Earring","Mohawk Thin"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":35.3688,"usd":80416,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.2796,"high_eth":38.7537,"low_usd":73392,"high_usd":88111},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4602,"high_eth":42.4624,"low_usd":66981,"high_usd":96544},"sigma_log":0.0914,"multiple_of_floor":1.1638,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":34.9033,"usd":79357,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.8547,"high_eth":38.2436,"low_usd":72426,"high_usd":86952},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0724,"high_eth":41.9035,"low_usd":66100,"high_usd":95273},"sigma_log":0.0914,"multiple_of_floor":1.1638,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.9},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1137,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":11.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.12,"date":"2018-08-15","block":6149657,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":35.988},{"eth":20.75,"date":"2021-04-18","block":12263817,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":31.5085},{"eth":23.9,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12925482,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":27.6528},{"eth":33.96,"date":"2021-08-02","block":12947545,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":30.6304},{"eth":48.3,"date":"2021-08-11","block":13006577,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":31.0308},{"eth":95.01,"date":"2021-09-08","block":13182431,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":69,"adjusted_eth":32.9405},{"eth":57.37,"date":"2024-03-06","block":19374848,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":31.288}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-03-28","punk":9024,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2939,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0463,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":157.5597,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":8375,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7071,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3397,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":78,"date":"2026-05-28","punk":4336,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":73.468,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1214,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.7,"date":"2026-02-01","punk":6883,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.725,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0884,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51}],"summary":["Estimate 35.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.3 to 38.8 ETH, 2σ range 29.5 to 42.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Earring -2%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9862","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}