{"punk":9863,"name":"CryptoPunk #9863","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9863","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9863.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Cigarette"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":38.9349,"usd":94342,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.9851,"high_eth":48.9243,"low_usd":75079,"high_usd":118548},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.6586,"high_eth":61.4767,"low_usd":59750,"high_usd":148963},"sigma_log":0.2284,"multiple_of_floor":1.2812,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":38.9349,"usd":94342,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.9851,"high_eth":48.9243,"low_usd":75079,"high_usd":118548},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.6586,"high_eth":61.4767,"low_usd":59750,"high_usd":148963},"sigma_log":0.2284,"multiple_of_floor":1.2812,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":14.9,"beta":0.1387,"term":"count1","label":"1 attribute (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":3.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 0-1","seen":{"n":16,"cover1":0.5,"cover2":0.625,"bias_pct":27.5,"within10":0.25,"within25":0.5,"MdALE_pct":27.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":35,"cover1":0.714,"cover2":0.914,"bias_pct":6.6,"within10":0.571,"within25":0.714,"MdALE_pct":7.8}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.2,"date":"2017-06-30","block":3951306,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":31.9895},{"eth":0.25,"date":"2018-01-18","block":4927410,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":84.4167},{"eth":33,"date":"2021-06-29","block":12727648,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":138,"adjusted_eth":57.6362},{"eth":44,"date":"2021-07-15","block":12828514,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":159,"adjusted_eth":67.8761},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2021-12-21","block":13851338,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":38.5069},{"eth":94,"date":"2022-01-31","block":14115538,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":45,"adjusted_eth":34.0281},{"eth":59,"date":"2022-05-18","block":14801152,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":150,"adjusted_eth":34.481},{"eth":74,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14988086,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":33.7413},{"eth":29.69,"date":"2024-07-27","block":20400622,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":355,"adjusted_eth":36.8277}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.5,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9132,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3964,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.5085,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3298,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":50,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":7858,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.1024,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2527,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38.99,"date":"2026-09-07","punk":1020,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.5496,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.55,"date":"2026-09-07","punk":9060,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9598,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1842,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 38.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.0 to 48.9 ETH, 2σ range 24.7 to 61.5 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 1 attribute (vs 3) +15%.","In the backtest, Male 0-1 sales landed within ±7.8% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±27.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9863","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}