{"punk":9891,"name":"CryptoPunk #9891","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9891","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9891.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Luxurious Beard","Mohawk","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":28.8858,"usd":69993,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.1803,"high_eth":31.8708,"low_usd":63437,"high_usd":77226},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.7282,"high_eth":35.1644,"low_usd":57495,"high_usd":85206},"sigma_log":0.0983,"multiple_of_floor":0.9505,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":28.8858,"usd":69993,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.1803,"high_eth":31.8708,"low_usd":63437,"high_usd":77226},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.7282,"high_eth":35.1644,"low_usd":57495,"high_usd":85206},"sigma_log":0.0983,"multiple_of_floor":0.9505,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":60.5854,"ask_usd":135455,"z":7.54,"z_text":"7.5σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-10-10T21:38:47.000Z","days_listed":391},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0788,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":73,"weighted_sales":15.8},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.081,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65,"weighted_sales":6.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22.5,"date":"2021-03-13","block":12027703,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":221,"adjusted_eth":31.1231},{"eth":29.49,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12930255,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":50,"adjusted_eth":29.8833},{"eth":34.99,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12937323,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":32.4686},{"eth":75,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13082420,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":33.6769},{"eth":74.99,"date":"2022-03-11","block":14368530,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":71,"adjusted_eth":30.7966},{"eth":55.99,"date":"2025-08-10","block":23111575,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":621,"adjusted_eth":31.3358},{"eth":47.89,"date":"2025-10-10","block":23550061,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":352,"adjusted_eth":30.3837},{"eth":50.4878,"date":"2025-10-10","block":23550061,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":356,"adjusted_eth":32.0318}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.45,"date":"2026-01-27","punk":7444,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4435,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2025-11-29","punk":7444,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.6774,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-07-13","punk":6421,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5117,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":6406,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.9757,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":2473,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.975,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5394,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.3289,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.5,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9132,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3964,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8569,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.1144,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Luxurious Beard","sales_12m":41}],"summary":["Estimate 28.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.2 to 31.9 ETH, 2σ range 23.7 to 35.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Mohawk -8%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9891","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}