{"punk":9907,"name":"CryptoPunk #9907","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9907","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9907.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Earring","Tiara","Blue Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":52.4651,"usd":119286,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":39.9429,"high_eth":68.9127,"low_usd":90815,"high_usd":156682},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4096,"high_eth":90.5169,"low_usd":69140,"high_usd":205802},"sigma_log":0.2727,"multiple_of_floor":1.7264,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":51.7745,"usd":117716,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":39.4172,"high_eth":68.0057,"low_usd":89620,"high_usd":154620},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0093,"high_eth":89.3255,"low_usd":68230,"high_usd":203093},"sigma_log":0.2727,"multiple_of_floor":1.7264,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":128,"ask_usd":310154,"z":3.27,"z_text":"3.3σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-04-24T23:50:18.000Z","days_listed":1655},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":70.8,"beta":0.5354,"term":"attr:Tiara","label":"Tiara","sales_12m":4,"weighted_sales":1.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.25,"date":"2017-07-17","block":4036435,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":101.3176},{"eth":1.75,"date":"2017-07-20","block":4049938,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":174.9417},{"eth":0.9,"date":"2018-01-17","block":4920724,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":299.9},{"eth":70,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12931528,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":194,"adjusted_eth":70},{"eth":120,"date":"2022-04-20","block":14620611,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":91,"adjusted_eth":61.5179}],"comparables":[{"eth":60,"date":"2026-05-14","punk":6753,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":60.1826,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":3490,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.4338,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":6753,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4388,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":3490,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4388,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.16,"date":"2026-01-16","punk":8201,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3228,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.8,"date":"2026-01-03","punk":8201,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.4608,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25,"date":"2026-01-01","punk":8201,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8921,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":100,"date":"2025-09-03","punk":5898,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":62.4922,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.5354,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":306},{"attribute":"Blue Eye Shadow","sales_12m":18}],"summary":["Estimate 52.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 39.9 to 68.9 ETH, 2σ range 30.4 to 90.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Tiara +71%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9907","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}