{"punk":9921,"name":"CryptoPunk #9921","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9921","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9921.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Frumpy Hair","Cigarette","Welding Goggles","Clown Nose"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":44.4896,"usd":107802,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.661,"high_eth":53.9899,"low_usd":88833,"high_usd":130822},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.21,"high_eth":65.519,"low_usd":73201,"high_usd":158758},"sigma_log":0.1935,"multiple_of_floor":1.464,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":44.4896,"usd":107802,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.661,"high_eth":53.9899,"low_usd":88833,"high_usd":130822},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.21,"high_eth":65.519,"low_usd":73201,"high_usd":158758},"sigma_log":0.1935,"multiple_of_floor":1.464,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2095,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.7},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.2},{"pct":29.3,"beta":0.2569,"term":"attr:Welding Goggles","label":"Welding Goggles","sales_12m":4,"weighted_sales":0.8},{"pct":-7,"beta":-0.0723,"term":"attr:Clown Nose","label":"Clown Nose","sales_12m":25,"weighted_sales":4.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.45,"date":"2017-07-04","block":3973541,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":58.1936},{"eth":0.79,"date":"2017-07-08","block":3991454,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":80.027},{"eth":1,"date":"2019-03-24","block":7432650,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":92,"adjusted_eth":101.6388}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.721,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":4351,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.221,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.99,"date":"2025-11-24","punk":5108,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.316,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":3961,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9751,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2025-08-07","punk":4937,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":40.7363,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2025-02-06","punk":6321,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4165,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2024-12-15","punk":8092,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7927,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8017,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.09,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":2278,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8926,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.3717,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59}],"summary":["Estimate 44.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.7 to 54.0 ETH, 2σ range 30.2 to 65.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 08:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, Cigarette -2%, Welding Goggles +29%, Clown Nose -7%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9921","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}