{"punk":9947,"name":"CryptoPunk #9947","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9947","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9947.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Goat","Earring","Knitted Cap","VR"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":42.2778,"usd":102443,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.0178,"high_eth":49.6258,"low_usd":87274,"high_usd":120247},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.6847,"high_eth":58.251,"low_usd":74352,"high_usd":141147},"sigma_log":0.1602,"multiple_of_floor":1.3912,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":42.2778,"usd":102443,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.0178,"high_eth":49.6258,"low_usd":87274,"high_usd":120247},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.6847,"high_eth":58.251,"low_usd":74352,"high_usd":141147},"sigma_log":0.1602,"multiple_of_floor":1.3912,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":175.69,"ask_usd":392803,"z":8.89,"z_text":"8.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-01-31T21:00:39.000Z","days_listed":1739},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.999,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10951969,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":162,"adjusted_eth":10.4922},{"eth":5,"date":"2020-11-26","block":11335888,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":183,"adjusted_eth":48.2381},{"eth":5.501,"date":"2020-12-27","block":11536458,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":282,"adjusted_eth":31.2477},{"eth":8.88,"date":"2021-02-11","block":11833368,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":165,"adjusted_eth":44.0953},{"eth":10.95,"date":"2021-02-14","block":11851442,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":190,"adjusted_eth":40.3358},{"eth":20,"date":"2021-05-23","block":12491008,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":72,"adjusted_eth":40.7919},{"eth":25,"date":"2021-06-29","block":12726972,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":43.6638},{"eth":120,"date":"2021-12-03","block":13736619,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":347,"adjusted_eth":55.2545}],"comparables":[{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":4202,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9259,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.3992,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1206,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2186,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.001,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7685,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.64,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2224,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0568,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.88,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":8332,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7292,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2665,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49}],"summary":["Estimate 42.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.0 to 49.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.7 to 58.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Goat -7%, Earring -2%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9947","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}