CryptoPunk #2421 valuation (beta)
Male, Smile, Headband, Vape.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 39.7 ETH (about $90,170). 1σ range 34.9 to 45.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.6 to 51.4 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 68.9 ETH, 4.3σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 39.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.9 to 45.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.6 to 51.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Smile +17%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #5163 2026-06-05: 33.0 ETH (30.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5163 2026-06-04: 30.8 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3677 2025-10-25: 78.0 ETH (60.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3677 2025-08-10: 72.7 ETH (40.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4552 2025-07-20: 48.0 ETH (30.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7224 2024-11-12: 33.0 ETH (33.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8179 2024-11-11: 33.3 ETH (33.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3662 2026-10-25: 30.0 ETH (29.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2018-08-27: 0.11 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-26: 21.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-03-14: 28.9 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-05: 54.4 ETH (sale)
- 2022-12-29: 85.5 ETH (sale, not used: round-trip-30d)
- 2023-01-27: 79.0 ETH (sale, not used: round-trip-30d)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.