CryptoPunk #3406 valuation (beta)
Male, Smile, Mole, Mohawk Dark, Big Shades.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 37.6 ETH (about $85,468). 1σ range 33.5 to 42.2 ETH, 2σ range 29.8 to 47.4 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 110 ETH, 9.2σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 37.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.5 to 42.2 ETH, 2σ range 29.8 to 47.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Smile +17%, Mole -7%, Mohawk Dark -8%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #3739 2026-10-11: 33.5 ETH (31.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5133 2026-09-22: 34.0 ETH (31.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9984 2026-09-21: 31.2 ETH (30.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2687 2026-08-31: 35.0 ETH (32.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3739 2026-07-04: 34.0 ETH (31.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9984 2026-04-27: 30.8 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1085 2026-03-28: 33.3 ETH (34.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1085 2026-03-19: 32.0 ETH (33.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-07-05: 30.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-02-06: 77.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-02-10: 85.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.