CryptoPunk #3415 valuation (beta)
Male, Smile, Do-rag, Eye Patch.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 42.2 ETH (about $95,931). 1σ range 36.1 to 49.3 ETH, 2σ range 31.0 to 57.5 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 173 ETH, 9.1σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 42.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.1 to 49.3 ETH, 2σ range 31.0 to 57.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Smile +17%, Do-rag -6%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #7377 2026-09-05: 31.5 ETH (31.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9950 2026-08-08: 39.7 ETH (37.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9774 2026-07-27: 95.0 ETH (88.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3624 2026-05-05: 34.0 ETH (32.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3624 2026-02-06: 29.0 ETH (29.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7377 2026-02-05: 29.9 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7377 2026-01-16: 30.0 ETH (31.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7377 2025-12-09: 29.5 ETH (30.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2017-07-03: 0.30 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.