CryptoPunk #3816 valuation (beta)
Female, Purple Lipstick, Orange Side, Green Eye Shadow.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 40.1 ETH (about $91,242). 1σ range 34.8 to 46.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 53.5 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 85.0 ETH, 5.2σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 40.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.8 to 46.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 53.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Orange Side +27%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #5168 2026-07-06: 40.0 ETH (37.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4456 2026-07-02: 48.9 ETH (45.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6343 2026-06-29: 45.0 ETH (42.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7663 2026-04-04: 32.0 ETH (34.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2039 2026-02-05: 29.5 ETH (29.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6674 2026-01-19: 27.5 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6343 2025-10-26: 38.8 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7663 2025-10-06: 49.7 ETH (30.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-04-09: 95.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-07-09: 113 ETH (sale)
- 2022-08-11: 107 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.