CryptoPunk #3826 valuation (beta)
Male, Chinstrap, Frumpy Hair, VR.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 43.7 ETH (about $99,316). 1σ range 36.9 to 51.8 ETH, 2σ range 31.1 to 61.3 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 300 ETH, 11.3σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 43.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.9 to 51.8 ETH, 2σ range 31.1 to 61.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Chinstrap -5%, Frumpy Hair -7%, VR +23%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #9558 2026-07-21: 57.0 ETH (53.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8863 2026-06-05: 33.9 ETH (31.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8863 2026-03-16: 33.0 ETH (34.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8863 2025-07-20: 52.4 ETH (33.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5213 2025-06-30: 50.0 ETH (38.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3296 2025-03-17: 78.0 ETH (61.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3296 2025-03-10: 50.0 ETH (39.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #638 2025-03-09: 76.0 ETH (59.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2019-05-06: 0.35 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2020-09-15: 2.95 ETH (sale)
- 2020-10-01: 5.90 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-13: 8.90 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.