CryptoPunk #3845 valuation (beta)
Male, Goat, Nerd Glasses.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 34.1 ETH (about $77,546). 1σ range 31.4 to 37.1 ETH, 2σ range 28.8 to 40.4 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 55.0 ETH, 5.7σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 34.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.4 to 37.1 ETH, 2σ range 28.8 to 40.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Goat -7%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #1424 2026-10-20: 53.0 ETH (50.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1182 2025-04-08: 142 ETH (100 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8233 2026-11-02: 31.4 ETH (31.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8233 2026-10-28: 30.5 ETH (30.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5635 2026-10-04: 33.4 ETH (30.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1241 2026-10-03: 35.2 ETH (32.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2224 2026-10-02: 33.0 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7559 2026-09-29: 40.0 ETH (35.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2018-03-14: 0.11 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2020-02-16: 0.65 ETH (sale)
- 2020-09-28: 5.82 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-04: 20.2 ETH (sale)
- 2022-01-24: 74.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2022-03-11: 79.9 ETH (sale)
- 2022-10-22: 71.9 ETH (sale)
- 2022-11-11: 77.5 ETH (sale)
- 2023-01-06: 75.0 ETH (sale)
- 2023-08-17: 56.7 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.