CryptoPunk #3859 valuation (beta)
Female, Mohawk Thin, Cigarette, VR.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 30.9 ETH (about $70,176). 1σ range 29.3 to 32.5 ETH, 2σ range 27.8 to 34.3 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 39.9 ETH, 4.9σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 30.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.3 to 32.5 ETH, 2σ range 27.8 to 34.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Cigarette -2%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #5931 2026-09-23: 32.5 ETH (28.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3961 2025-08-10: 75.0 ETH (41.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7810 2024-12-04: 44.3 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7810 2024-12-03: 44.5 ETH (30.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7810 2024-11-24: 37.8 ETH (30.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #874 2026-10-30: 28.9 ETH (30.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2278 2026-10-30: 27.1 ETH (28.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9849 2026-10-22: 32.0 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-12-06: 85.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2021-12-28: 94.0 ETH (sale)
- 2026-10-08: 36.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.