CryptoPunk #3861 valuation (beta)
Female, Purple Lipstick, Wild Blonde.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 31.6 ETH (about $71,775). 1σ range 29.9 to 33.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 35.2 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 80.0 ETH, 17.3σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 31.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 33.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 35.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #9493 2026-01-22: 39.0 ETH (42.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9493 2026-01-19: 27.5 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1750 2025-03-18: 49.0 ETH (38.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8760 2025-02-08: 37.5 ETH (32.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3364 2026-10-30: 29.0 ETH (30.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3364 2026-10-28: 28.5 ETH (28.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5264 2026-10-24: 31.0 ETH (30.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5264 2026-10-24: 30.2 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2023-07-12: 60.0 ETH (sale)
- 2023-07-23: 60.5 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2024-01-22: 72.9 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.