CryptoPunk #3865 valuation (beta)
Male, Buck Teeth, Knitted Cap, Nerd Glasses.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 33.9 ETH (about $77,055). 1σ range 31.2 to 36.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.7 to 40.0 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 65.0 ETH, 7.8σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 33.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.2 to 36.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.7 to 40.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #1839 2026-09-04: 162 ETH (158 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7607 2026-06-30: 44.0 ETH (41.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7607 2025-07-20: 52.5 ETH (33.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7607 2025-02-14: 41.0 ETH (34.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7440 2026-11-01: 40.4 ETH (39.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2473 2026-10-31: 38.0 ETH (37.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4202 2026-10-29: 40.0 ETH (41.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1424 2026-10-20: 53.0 ETH (50.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2023-06-19: 58.0 ETH (sale)
- 2024-08-17: 27.3 ETH (sale)
- 2024-09-30: 30.0 ETH (sale)
- 2024-11-13: 39.0 ETH (sale)
- 2025-01-25: 45.0 ETH (sale)
- 2025-03-18: 42.7 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.