CryptoPunk #3866 valuation (beta)
Male, Cap, VR.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 44.1 ETH (about $100,243). 1σ range 37.1 to 52.5 ETH, 2σ range 31.1 to 62.4 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 44.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 37.1 to 52.5 ETH, 2σ range 31.1 to 62.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, VR +23%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #8233 2026-11-02: 31.4 ETH (31.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8233 2026-10-28: 30.5 ETH (30.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4241 2026-09-22: 36.8 ETH (34.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5034 2026-09-19: 46.5 ETH (47.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6669 2026-09-10: 32.0 ETH (32.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4255 2026-09-02: 33.5 ETH (31.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5523 2026-08-10: 35.3 ETH (33.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1223 2026-08-07: 41.8 ETH (38.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-08-02: 7.77 ETH (accepted bid, not used: below-half-floor)
- 2021-10-05: 194 ETH (sale)
- 2022-10-24: 149 ETH (sale)
- 2023-11-07: 92.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.