CryptoPunk #410 valuation (beta)
Male, Headband, Eye Patch.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 39.2 ETH (about $89,042). 1σ range 34.6 to 44.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.5 to 50.2 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 84.7 ETH, 6.2σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 39.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.6 to 44.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.5 to 50.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #5559 2026-09-21: 30.5 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1195 2026-04-21: 40.0 ETH (42.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4942 2026-02-05: 34.5 ETH (34.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3903 2026-02-02: 30.0 ETH (32.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3331 2025-04-21: 53.0 ETH (37.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3903 2024-11-14: 39.8 ETH (36.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9585 2026-11-02: 31.0 ETH (30.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5394 2026-10-30: 35.0 ETH (36.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-04-25: 27.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.