CryptoPunk #4168 valuation (beta)
Female, Hot Lipstick, Mole, Stringy Hair, Cigarette.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 30.4 ETH (about $73,674). 1σ range 28.8 to 32.1 ETH, 2σ range 27.3 to 33.9 ETH. Confidence: Medium. Valued at the latest floor (as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 222 ETH, 36.7σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 30.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.8 to 32.1 ETH, 2σ range 27.3 to 33.9 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Stringy Hair -3%, Cigarette -2%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #2278 2026-10-30: 27.1 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #4065 2026-09-22: 32.4 ETH (30.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #4554 2026-09-22: 32.0 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #4554 2026-09-05: 27.9 ETH (28.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #2120 2026-06-28: 100 ETH (93.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #2659 2026-06-05: 30.8 ETH (29.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #3646 2026-05-31: 30.5 ETH (29.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #5032 2026-05-15: 29.0 ETH (28.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
Sales of this punk
- 2019-02-22: 0.34 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.