CryptoPunk #4193 valuation (beta)
Male, Normal Beard Black, Frumpy Hair.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 30.3 ETH (about $68,900). 1σ range 27.8 to 33.0 ETH, 2σ range 25.5 to 36.0 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 61.5 ETH, 8.2σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 30.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 33.0 ETH, 2σ range 25.5 to 36.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Frumpy Hair -7%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #3837 2026-02-05: 35.0 ETH (35.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3837 2025-02-14: 41.0 ETH (34.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9585 2026-11-02: 31.0 ETH (30.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8427 2026-10-23: 29.4 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7711 2026-10-20: 29.0 ETH (27.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5098 2026-10-15: 30.4 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8159 2026-10-09: 35.9 ETH (34.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5098 2026-10-08: 31.3 ETH (28.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2024-03-19: 48.9 ETH (sale)
- 2025-10-06: 49.4 ETH (sale, not used: relay-same-block)
- 2025-10-06: 51.3 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.