CryptoPunk #4194 valuation (beta)
Female, Hot Lipstick, Stringy Hair, Clown Nose.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 28.6 ETH (about $65,081). 1σ range 26.9 to 30.5 ETH, 2σ range 25.2 to 32.5 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 28.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.9 to 30.5 ETH, 2σ range 25.2 to 32.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Stringy Hair -3%, Clown Nose -7%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #6897 2026-10-27: 29.4 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6897 2026-10-27: 29.0 ETH (28.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6897 2026-10-27: 28.4 ETH (28.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9433 2026-06-05: 30.5 ETH (28.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9433 2026-05-23: 32.5 ETH (29.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5863 2026-04-08: 27.1 ETH (28.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5863 2026-04-05: 27.0 ETH (28.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5467 2025-09-23: 45.6 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-02-14: 10.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-29: 140 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-29: 130 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.