CryptoPunk #4196 valuation (beta)
Female, Purple Lipstick, Clown Hair Green.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 30.7 ETH (about $69,835). 1σ range 29.2 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.1 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- No attribute of this punk has a clear premium in recent sales, so the estimate is the type multiple.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #5640 2025-08-11: 57.5 ETH (31.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5640 2025-08-09: 55.0 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3364 2026-10-30: 29.0 ETH (30.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3364 2026-10-28: 28.5 ETH (28.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4381 2026-10-26: 31.0 ETH (30.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4405 2026-10-22: 88.0 ETH (84.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6326 2026-10-08: 51.5 ETH (47.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6936 2026-10-06: 33.0 ETH (30.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-04-08: 18.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-04-13: 24.8 ETH (sale)
- 2026-01-02: 26.5 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.