CryptoPunk #4204 valuation (beta)
Male, Chinstrap, Earring, Messy Hair, Clown Eyes Green.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 31.9 ETH (about $72,549). 1σ range 29.2 to 34.9 ETH, 2σ range 26.7 to 38.1 ETH. Confidence: Medium. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 31.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 34.9 ETH, 2σ range 26.7 to 38.1 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Chinstrap -5%, Earring -2%, Clown Eyes Green -8%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #8614 2026-06-26: 36.5 ETH (34.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8614 2026-05-21: 32.6 ETH (29.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8614 2026-02-05: 29.3 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9706 2026-10-07: 37.7 ETH (34.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-25: 34.5 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-24: 33.5 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-24: 33.0 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4755 2026-09-23: 33.5 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-02-20: 15.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-03-12: 24.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-17: 22.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-31: 29.0 ETH (sale)
- 2025-02-07: 39.0 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.