CryptoPunk #4404 valuation (beta)
Male, Mole, Shadow Beard, Frumpy Hair, VR.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 39.5 ETH (about $89,811). 1σ range 34.6 to 45.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.2 to 51.6 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 39.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.6 to 45.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.2 to 51.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Mole -7%, Frumpy Hair -7%, VR +23%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #6669 2026-09-10: 32.0 ETH (32.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9558 2026-07-21: 57.0 ETH (53.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8492 2026-05-10: 32.8 ETH (31.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8492 2026-05-01: 31.9 ETH (30.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8492 2026-04-28: 30.5 ETH (29.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4770 2026-03-28: 117 ETH (122 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6012 2026-01-20: 44.4 ETH (48.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8002 2025-12-31: 26.3 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
None on record.
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.