CryptoPunk #4409 valuation (beta)
Male, Silver Chain, Mohawk Thin, Classic Shades.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 34.1 ETH (about $77,417). 1σ range 31.3 to 37.0 ETH, 2σ range 28.8 to 40.3 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 34.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.3 to 37.0 ETH, 2σ range 28.8 to 40.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Mohawk Thin -11%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #5635 2026-10-04: 33.4 ETH (30.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5635 2026-09-29: 32.3 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5635 2026-09-29: 31.2 ETH (27.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7881 2026-05-22: 33.0 ETH (29.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9024 2026-03-28: 30.0 ETH (31.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5635 2025-09-15: 48.4 ETH (29.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7709 2025-08-30: 47.2 ETH (30.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5635 2025-08-27: 46.9 ETH (29.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2024-08-04: 24.9 ETH (sale)
- 2024-11-12: 31.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.