CryptoPunk #4424 valuation (beta)
Female, Black Lipstick, Earring, Wild White Hair, Cigarette, Clown Eyes Green.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 47.8 ETH (about $108,784). 1σ range 38.1 to 60.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 75.5 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 75.0 ETH, 2.0σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 47.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 38.1 to 60.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 75.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, Wild White Hair +35%, Cigarette -2%, Clown Eyes Green -4%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #2772 2026-05-16: 32.5 ETH (29.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9732 2026-05-16: 31.0 ETH (28.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2127 2026-01-15: 29.4 ETH (30.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5108 2025-11-24: 36.0 ETH (34.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3961 2025-08-10: 75.0 ETH (41.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8774 2025-08-09: 54.0 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8774 2025-08-05: 51.0 ETH (29.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7155 2025-08-05: 52.5 ETH (30.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
None on record.
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.