CryptoPunk #4446 valuation (beta)
Male, Normal Beard Black, Cap, Clown Nose.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 34.9 ETH (about $84,635). 1σ range 32.0 to 38.2 ETH, 2σ range 29.3 to 41.7 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 83.0 ETH, 9.8σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 34.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.0 to 38.2 ETH, 2σ range 29.3 to 41.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Clown Nose -6%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #4255 2026-09-02: 33.5 ETH (32.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #4255 2026-06-28: 32.8 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #7019 2025-10-08: 47.7 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #3052 2025-09-03: 45.0 ETH (28.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #3052 2025-07-18: 52.7 ETH (39.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #8182 2025-04-16: 45.0 ETH (32.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #3052 2025-03-23: 45.8 ETH (34.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #3052 2025-02-21: 39.9 ETH (34.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
Sales of this punk
- 2020-12-29: 6.50 ETH (sale)
- 2024-11-14: 40.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.