CryptoPunk #4478 valuation (beta)
Male, Gold Chain, Muttonchops, Mohawk Thin.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 27.4 ETH (about $62,396). 1σ range 24.5 to 30.8 ETH, 2σ range 21.8 to 34.5 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 56.8 ETH, 6.3σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 27.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 24.5 to 30.8 ETH, 2σ range 21.8 to 34.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 20:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Muttonchops -9%, Mohawk Thin -11%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #3797 2026-09-21: 29.9 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3797 2026-09-05: 30.5 ETH (30.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5459 2026-07-04: 33.9 ETH (31.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5842 2026-06-25: 33.9 ETH (32.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5842 2026-06-03: 30.5 ETH (29.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5459 2026-04-21: 30.0 ETH (32.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1927 2025-10-17: 43.1 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6008 2025-07-30: 54.0 ETH (30.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2020-01-26: 0.88 ETH (sale)
- 2022-07-11: 85.0 ETH (sale)
- 2023-06-05: 57.0 ETH (sale)
- 2025-04-06: 42.5 ETH (sale)
- 2025-04-07: 43.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2025-07-20: 45.0 ETH (sale, not used: twin-of-nominal-24h)
- 2025-10-02: 47.3 ETH (sale, not used: relay-same-block)
- 2025-10-02: 47.4 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.