CryptoPunk #4538 valuation (beta)
Male, Front Beard, Peak Spike.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 32.1 ETH (about $73,045). 1σ range 29.7 to 34.8 ETH, 2σ range 27.4 to 37.7 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 115 ETH, 15.9σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 32.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.7 to 34.8 ETH, 2σ range 27.4 to 37.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Front Beard -7%, Peak Spike -6%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #8557 2026-09-11: 32.3 ETH (32.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5051 2025-06-10: 71.8 ETH (48.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5352 2024-12-17: 44.7 ETH (33.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5352 2024-12-06: 41.7 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5352 2024-11-12: 31.7 ETH (32.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9018 2026-10-29: 30.0 ETH (31.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9404 2026-10-25: 29.5 ETH (28.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8427 2026-10-23: 29.4 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2017-07-03: 0.12 ETH (sale)
- 2017-07-04: 0.29 ETH (sale)
- 2023-04-02: 62.0 ETH (sale, not used: relay-same-block)
- 2023-04-02: 62.5 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.