CryptoPunk #4561 valuation (beta)
Male, Fedora, Cigarette.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 36.0 ETH (about $81,807). 1σ range 32.7 to 39.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.6 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 36.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #6530 2026-04-09: 37.3 ETH (39.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8530 2025-10-31: 54.0 ETH (43.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8407 2025-10-27: 100 ETH (76.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9232 2025-07-27: 52.5 ETH (30.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6530 2025-07-20: 50.0 ETH (31.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2567 2025-06-14: 52.0 ETH (36.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6530 2025-06-12: 50.0 ETH (34.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #450 2025-02-14: 42.5 ETH (35.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-03-05: 29.2 ETH (sale)
- 2021-04-18: 40.0 ETH (sale)
- 2025-06-30: 42.5 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.