CryptoPunk #4764 valuation (beta)
Male, Earring, Peak Spike, Cigarette.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 34.3 ETH (about $77,940). 1σ range 31.5 to 37.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.9 to 40.6 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 77.8 ETH, 9.6σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 34.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.5 to 37.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.9 to 40.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Earring -2%, Peak Spike -6%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #2830 2026-04-22: 35.5 ETH (36.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2830 2025-08-25: 49.0 ETH (30.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2830 2024-12-03: 47.4 ETH (32.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3425 2026-11-02: 27.6 ETH (27.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9132 2026-10-30: 28.5 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9018 2026-10-29: 30.0 ETH (31.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9404 2026-10-25: 29.5 ETH (28.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8427 2026-10-23: 29.4 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2023-01-06: 75.0 ETH (sale)
- 2023-01-08: 75.5 ETH (sale)
- 2025-03-05: 38.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.