CryptoPunk #4854 valuation (beta)
Male, Chinstrap, Bandana, Small Shades.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 34.9 ETH (about $79,303). 1σ range 31.9 to 38.1 ETH, 2σ range 29.2 to 41.6 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 34.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.9 to 38.1 ETH, 2σ range 29.2 to 41.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 20:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Chinstrap -5%, Bandana -4%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #2303 2026-11-02: 33.0 ETH (32.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4023 2026-09-05: 28.2 ETH (28.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1717 2026-08-23: 38.0 ETH (35.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2303 2026-06-11: 33.0 ETH (30.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2947 2026-01-02: 27.1 ETH (29.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2666 2026-01-02: 28.0 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5269 2025-12-08: 29.0 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9472 2025-10-01: 50.7 ETH (32.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-03-23: 20.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-03-28: 61.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2021-05-11: 16.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-05-26: 20.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.