CryptoPunk #4866 valuation (beta)
Male, Goat, Earring, Stringy Hair.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 27.8 ETH (about $63,179). 1σ range 24.9 to 31.0 ETH, 2σ range 22.3 to 34.7 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 27.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 24.9 to 31.0 ETH, 2σ range 22.3 to 34.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 20:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Goat -7%, Earring -2%, Stringy Hair -9%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #1054 2025-11-05: 35.3 ETH (29.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1054 2025-10-06: 48.9 ETH (30.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9585 2026-11-02: 31.0 ETH (30.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8871 2026-10-16: 32.0 ETH (31.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2224 2026-10-02: 33.0 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-25: 34.5 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-24: 33.5 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-24: 33.0 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2020-09-26: 3.00 ETH (sale)
- 2020-12-24: 4.00 ETH (sale)
- 2021-04-08: 15.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-04-11: 18.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2021-07-15: 19.6 ETH (sale)
- 2024-08-20: 23.0 ETH (sale)
- 2024-08-20: 26.5 ETH (sale)
- 2024-12-18: 40.3 ETH (sale)
- 2025-02-05: 40.3 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.