CryptoPunk #4868 valuation (beta)
Female, Hot Lipstick, Blonde Bob, 3D Glasses.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 46.6 ETH (about $106,051). 1σ range 37.6 to 57.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 71.7 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 46.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 37.6 to 57.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 71.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, 3D Glasses +46%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #4294 2026-07-01: 50.0 ETH (48.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3116 2026-05-27: 32.5 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8539 2025-12-22: 27.0 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3037 2025-10-06: 48.9 ETH (30.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7987 2025-04-30: 45.6 ETH (31.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3441 2025-04-04: 69.7 ETH (49.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2278 2026-10-30: 27.1 ETH (28.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6897 2026-10-27: 29.4 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2020-10-09: 16.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2020-11-16: 15.0 ETH (sale)
- 2025-05-28: 76.5 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.