CryptoPunk #4869 valuation (beta)
Male, Shadow Beard, Crazy Hair.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 36.8 ETH (about $83,682). 1σ range 33.2 to 40.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 45.2 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 36.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.2 to 40.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 45.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #1062 2025-03-01: 80.0 ETH (69.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7488 2025-02-04: 88.0 ETH (66.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1270 2025-01-21: 61.0 ETH (48.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1270 2024-11-15: 51.0 ETH (40.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7440 2026-11-01: 40.4 ETH (39.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9176 2026-10-27: 30.5 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8879 2026-10-24: 45.0 ETH (44.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5448 2026-10-21: 60.0 ETH (57.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
None on record.
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.