CryptoPunk #494 valuation (beta)
Male, Front Beard Dark, Stringy Hair.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 30.9 ETH (about $70,325). 1σ range 28.5 to 33.6 ETH, 2σ range 26.2 to 36.5 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 65.0 ETH, 8.9σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 30.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.5 to 33.6 ETH, 2σ range 26.2 to 36.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 20:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Front Beard Dark -7%, Stringy Hair -9%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #5450 2026-07-03: 32.2 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5450 2026-04-17: 27.7 ETH (31.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5450 2026-04-08: 28.3 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5674 2026-01-02: 27.3 ETH (29.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6457 2025-10-28: 37.5 ETH (28.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2043 2025-07-20: 47.0 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2043 2025-07-20: 40.0 ETH (25.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6193 2025-07-09: 41.0 ETH (29.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-06-15: 15.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-09-05: 91.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2021-09-06: 92.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-09-13: 75.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2021-09-28: 110 ETH (sale)
- 2023-10-20: 42.3 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2023-11-12: 60.5 ETH (sale)
- 2024-11-13: 31.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.