CryptoPunk #4953 valuation (beta)
Male, Gold Chain, Luxurious Beard, Earring, Fedora.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 33.1 ETH (about $75,221). 1σ range 30.2 to 36.2 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 39.6 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 40.5 ETH, 2.3σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 33.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 36.2 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 39.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #8554 2026-04-07: 50.5 ETH (53.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4714 2026-09-24: 39.9 ETH (35.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1941 2026-09-23: 60.5 ETH (53.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9478 2026-08-24: 47.0 ETH (43.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7036 2026-06-05: 31.5 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4714 2026-05-20: 38.0 ETH (33.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8870 2026-05-19: 130 ETH (115 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4714 2026-03-09: 35.0 ETH (35.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2018-04-07: 0.15 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-19: 115 ETH (sale)
- 2022-01-01: 130 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2026-03-11: 30.3 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2026-03-11: 34.0 ETH (sale)
- 2026-05-11: 34.3 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.