CryptoPunk #4965 valuation (beta)
Male, Normal Beard, Knitted Cap, Nerd Glasses.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 40.6 ETH (about $98,369). 1σ range 35.3 to 46.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.8 to 53.5 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 149 ETH, 9.4σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 40.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.3 to 46.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.8 to 53.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #4202 2026-10-29: 40.0 ETH (41.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #1824 2026-10-02: 45.5 ETH (41.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #1839 2026-09-04: 162 ETH (160 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #1824 2026-07-22: 34.5 ETH (32.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #1812 2026-05-14: 34.5 ETH (35.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #1812 2026-04-01: 31.1 ETH (33.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #1812 2026-04-01: 31.1 ETH (33.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #1812 2026-02-05: 34.0 ETH (34.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-03-12: 26.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-03-14: 27.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-04-10: 18.9 ETH (sale)
- 2021-04-10: 20.5 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2021-04-22: 24.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-05-03: 28.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-06: 28.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-12-14: 75.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-01-12: 83.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.