CryptoPunk #5194 valuation (beta)
Male, Earring, Messy Hair, Clown Eyes Green.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 34.5 ETH (about $78,329). 1σ range 31.6 to 37.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.0 to 40.9 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 64.4 ETH, 7.3σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 34.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.6 to 37.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.0 to 40.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Earring -2%, Clown Eyes Green -8%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #4204 2025-02-07: 39.0 ETH (33.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-25: 34.5 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-24: 33.5 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-24: 33.0 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4755 2026-09-23: 33.5 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4755 2026-09-14: 27.6 ETH (27.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2720 2026-08-10: 38.9 ETH (36.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4523 2026-08-07: 58.0 ETH (53.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2020-09-24: 3.00 ETH (sale)
- 2020-09-28: 4.00 ETH (sale)
- 2021-01-29: 5.68 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-17: 11.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-21: 17.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-31: 30.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-08: 50.5 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.