CryptoPunk #531 valuation (beta)
Male, Earring, Knitted Cap.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 31.9 ETH (about $72,568). 1σ range 29.5 to 34.6 ETH, 2σ range 27.2 to 37.5 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 69.0 ETH, 9.6σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 31.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.5 to 34.6 ETH, 2σ range 27.2 to 37.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 20:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Earring -2%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #4202 2026-10-29: 40.0 ETH (41.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1839 2026-09-04: 162 ETH (158 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5322 2026-08-03: 34.9 ETH (32.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9390 2026-02-26: 32.8 ETH (32.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8106 2026-01-23: 29.6 ETH (32.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8106 2026-01-19: 27.5 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6117 2025-08-08: 53.5 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3855 2025-07-30: 65.0 ETH (36.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-07-23: 22.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-02-24: 57.5 ETH (sale)
- 2022-02-27: 64.7 ETH (sale, not used: twin-of-nominal-24h)
- 2022-03-19: 72.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-03-28: 72.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-06-18: 58.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.