CryptoPunk #586 valuation (beta)
Female, Wild Hair, Purple Eye Shadow.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 31.2 ETH (about $70,873). 1σ range 29.6 to 32.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.1 to 34.6 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 100 ETH, 22.2σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 31.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 32.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.1 to 34.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 20:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #6223 2026-05-04: 31.5 ETH (30.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3811 2025-07-10: 42.0 ETH (29.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6370 2026-10-31: 36.0 ETH (35.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #874 2026-10-30: 28.9 ETH (30.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2278 2026-10-30: 27.1 ETH (28.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2486 2026-10-26: 29.0 ETH (28.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5264 2026-10-24: 31.0 ETH (30.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5264 2026-10-24: 30.2 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-02-22: 24.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-25: 21.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-26: 23.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-03-14: 24.9 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-05: 48.6 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-23: 64.0 ETH (sale)
- 2024-02-19: 56.5 ETH (sale)
- 2024-06-28: 28.3 ETH (sale)
- 2024-08-23: 28.5 ETH (sale)
- 2024-10-18: 29.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.