CryptoPunk #6404 valuation (beta)
Male, Silver Chain, Luxurious Beard, Purple Hair.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 33.9 ETH (about $77,055). 1σ range 31.2 to 36.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.7 to 40.0 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 47.0 ETH, 3.9σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 33.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.2 to 36.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.7 to 40.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #7881 2026-05-22: 33.0 ETH (29.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2406 2026-02-02: 32.0 ETH (34.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7158 2025-11-22: 31.0 ETH (31.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2406 2025-09-21: 48.9 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6594 2025-08-10: 70.0 ETH (38.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5767 2025-05-09: 69.0 ETH (46.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7158 2025-04-08: 54.8 ETH (38.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6594 2024-11-11: 46.9 ETH (47.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-07-30: 40.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2025-11-11: 36.5 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.