CryptoPunk #6417 valuation (beta)
Male, Mole, Peak Spike, Cigarette, Eye Patch.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 33.5 ETH (about $81,169). 1σ range 30.6 to 36.7 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 40.2 ETH. Confidence: Medium. Valued at the latest floor (as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 269 ETH, 23.0σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 33.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.6 to 36.7 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 40.2 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Mole -7%, Peak Spike -6%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #2124 2026-03-21: 28.8 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #2124 2026-03-13: 28.4 ETH (30.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #2124 2025-11-14: 33.0 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #3425 2026-11-02: 27.6 ETH (27.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #8427 2026-10-23: 29.4 ETH (28.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #5559 2026-09-21: 30.5 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #9065 2026-09-21: 31.9 ETH (31.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #5866 2026-09-17: 29.6 ETH (30.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
Sales of this punk
- 2018-02-04: 0.10 ETH (sale)
- 2021-09-16: 110 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.