CryptoPunk #6469 valuation (beta)
Female, Hot Lipstick, Crazy Hair, Cigarette, Horned Rim Glasses.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 31.2 ETH (about $71,011). 1σ range 29.6 to 33.0 ETH, 2σ range 28.0 to 34.8 ETH. Confidence: Medium. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 333 ETH, 43.4σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 31.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 33.0 ETH, 2σ range 28.0 to 34.8 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Cigarette -2%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #2278 2026-10-30: 27.1 ETH (28.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8514 2026-10-09: 34.0 ETH (32.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3976 2026-10-09: 30.0 ETH (28.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8514 2026-09-29: 32.4 ETH (29.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8514 2026-09-28: 31.0 ETH (27.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4065 2026-09-22: 32.4 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5032 2026-05-15: 29.0 ETH (28.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5032 2026-05-14: 29.0 ETH (29.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-01-24: 7.00 ETH (sale)
- 2021-03-21: 30.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.