CryptoPunk #6538 valuation (beta)
Male, Gold Chain, Luxurious Beard, Stringy Hair, Cigarette.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 34.6 ETH (about $78,620). 1σ range 31.4 to 38.0 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 41.8 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 125 ETH, 13.5σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 34.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.4 to 38.0 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 41.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Stringy Hair -9%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #1020 2026-09-07: 39.0 ETH (39.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1020 2025-10-08: 49.0 ETH (30.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9528 2025-01-24: 45.6 ETH (33.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9528 2025-01-17: 38.9 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9528 2024-11-13: 35.0 ETH (31.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8659 2026-09-23: 38.3 ETH (33.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8353 2026-08-08: 40.5 ETH (37.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5450 2026-07-03: 32.2 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-06-25: 26.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-06-30: 33.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-05: 80.0 ETH (sale)
- 2025-08-12: 60.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.