CryptoPunk #6854 valuation (beta)
Female, Mole, Wild Hair, Horned Rim Glasses.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 37.8 ETH (about $91,664). 1σ range 33.7 to 42.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.9 to 47.8 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 100 ETH, 8.3σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 37.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.7 to 42.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.9 to 47.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #4101 2025-10-27: 43.5 ETH (33.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #874 2026-10-30: 28.9 ETH (30.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #2278 2026-10-30: 27.1 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #6239 2026-10-15: 31.9 ETH (31.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #1895 2026-10-09: 33.3 ETH (32.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #8514 2026-10-09: 34.0 ETH (32.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #3976 2026-10-09: 30.0 ETH (29.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #8514 2026-09-29: 32.4 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-08-28: 125 ETH (sale)
- 2021-10-03: 135 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.