CryptoPunk #7540 valuation (beta)
Male, Front Beard Dark, Messy Hair, Classic Shades.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 35.4 ETH (about $80,425). 1σ range 32.3 to 38.8 ETH, 2σ range 29.5 to 42.5 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 421 ETH, 27.1σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 35.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.3 to 38.8 ETH, 2σ range 29.5 to 42.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 20:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Front Beard Dark -7%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #3758 2026-10-12: 40.0 ETH (38.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-25: 34.5 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-24: 33.5 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9142 2026-09-24: 33.0 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8295 2025-11-03: 54.7 ETH (45.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8798 2025-07-30: 54.0 ETH (30.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8619 2025-05-26: 64.0 ETH (41.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8619 2025-04-17: 62.4 ETH (44.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2017-07-22: 0.29 ETH (sale)
- 2020-10-17: 4.50 ETH (sale)
- 2021-01-27: 7.89 ETH (sale)
- 2021-03-01: 23.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-25: 81.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-26: 87.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-31: 120 ETH (sale)
- 2022-01-01: 0.20 ETH (accepted bid, not used: below-half-floor)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.