CryptoPunk #8278 valuation (beta)
Male, Chinstrap, Cap, VR.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 43.3 ETH (about $98,446). 1σ range 36.7 to 51.1 ETH, 2σ range 31.1 to 60.3 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 120 ETH, 6.1σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 43.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.7 to 51.1 ETH, 2σ range 31.1 to 60.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Chinstrap -5%, VR +23%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #5511 2026-07-16: 36.4 ETH (33.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8614 2026-06-26: 36.5 ETH (34.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8863 2026-06-05: 33.9 ETH (31.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8614 2026-05-21: 32.6 ETH (29.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8863 2026-03-16: 33.0 ETH (34.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8614 2026-02-05: 29.3 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8863 2025-07-20: 52.4 ETH (33.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5213 2025-06-30: 50.0 ETH (38.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2019-06-21: 0.45 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2021-03-01: 45.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-04-28: 90.0 ETH (sale)
- 2023-07-31: 70.0 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.