CryptoPunk #8440 valuation (beta)
Female, Hot Lipstick, Earring, Half Shaved, Eye Patch.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 37.9 ETH (about $86,116). 1σ range 33.7 to 42.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.9 to 47.9 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 150 ETH, 11.7σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 37.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.7 to 42.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.9 to 47.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #4065 2026-09-22: 32.4 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4190 2025-06-27: 42.0 ETH (32.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4190 2025-04-27: 45.8 ETH (30.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3441 2025-04-04: 69.7 ETH (49.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3190 2026-10-20: 29.0 ETH (27.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3976 2026-10-09: 30.0 ETH (28.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1612 2026-10-08: 44.0 ETH (40.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4711 2026-08-20: 32.4 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-02-02: 13.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-22: 65.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-12-03: 90.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.