CryptoPunk #8534 valuation (beta)
Male, Normal Beard Black, Messy Hair, VR.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 49.7 ETH (about $120,501). 1σ range 39.6 to 62.5 ETH, 2σ range 31.5 to 78.6 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 499 ETH, 10.1σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 49.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 39.6 to 62.5 ETH, 2σ range 31.5 to 78.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, VR +23%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #9762 2026-02-23: 46.3 ETH (47.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #9762 2025-07-26: 59.0 ETH (35.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #9779 2025-07-29: 58.9 ETH (33.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #7820 2025-07-25: 58.5 ETH (34.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #9779 2025-04-21: 50.0 ETH (36.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #7428 2025-02-19: 39.8 ETH (34.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #2883 2024-11-15: 49.0 ETH (39.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #9570 2024-11-07: 39.0 ETH (45.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-02-14: 15.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-19: 17.0 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.