CryptoPunk #8574 valuation (beta)
Male, Silver Chain, Earring, Cap, VR.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 45.6 ETH (about $103,759). 1σ range 37.6 to 55.4 ETH, 2σ range 31.0 to 67.2 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 125 ETH, 5.2σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 45.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 37.6 to 55.4 ETH, 2σ range 31.0 to 67.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Earring -2%, VR +23%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #4241 2026-09-22: 36.8 ETH (34.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5511 2026-07-16: 36.4 ETH (33.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8614 2026-06-26: 36.5 ETH (34.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8614 2026-05-21: 32.6 ETH (29.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2650 2026-04-24: 30.4 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4855 2026-04-21: 39.0 ETH (41.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2650 2026-03-10: 31.8 ETH (32.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2650 2026-03-06: 30.5 ETH (31.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-03-18: 39.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-05-22: 35.1 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.